With Hezbollah weakened, Lebanon to hold presidential vote

BEIRUT, Jan 8 (Reuters) – Lebanon’s parliament will try to elect a president on Thursday, with officials seeing better chances of success in a political landscape shaken by Israel’s war with Hezbollah and the toppling of the group’s ally Bashar al-Assad in neighbouring Syria.

The post, reserved for a Maronite Christian in the country’s sectarian power-sharing system, has been vacant since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October, 2023. None of the political groups in the 128-seat parliament have enough seats to impose their choice, and they have so far been unable to agree on a consensus candidate.

The vote marks the first test of Lebanon’s power balance since the Iran-backed Shi’ite group Hezbollah – which propelled its then Christian ally Aoun to the presidency in 2016 – emerged badly pummelled from the war with Israel.

It takes place against a backdrop of historic change in the wider Middle East, where the Assad-led Syrian state exercised sway over Lebanon for decades, both directly and through allies such as Hezbollah.

Reflecting the shifts, Hezbollah and its ally the Shi’ite Amal Movement led by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri have dropped their insistence on Suleiman Frangieh, their declared candidate for the last two years, and are ready to go with a less divisive figure, three senior sources familiar with their thinking said.

Candidates in focus include army commander General Joseph Aoun – said by Lebanese politicians to enjoy U.S. approval – Jihad Azour, a senior International Monetary Fund official who formerly served as finance minister, and Major-General Elias al-Baysari – head of General Security, a state security agency.

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said he felt happy because “God willing, tomorrow we will have a new president”, according to a statement from his office.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot also expressed hope in comments to France Inter radio, saying the election was “a prerequisite for the continuation of this dynamic of peace” and also for Lebanon’s economic and social recovery.

However, two of the sources and an analyst cautioned that it was not yet certain any candidate would be elected. To win, a candidate must secure 86 votes in a first round, or 65 in a second round.

Reflecting Western and regional interest in the vote, French and Saudi envoys met Lebanese politicians in Beirut on Wednesday. Four Lebanese political sources who met the Saudi envoy, Prince Yazid bin Farhan, last week said he spelt out preferred qualifications which signal Saudi support for Aoun.

Saudi Arabia was once a big player in Lebanon, vying with Tehran for influence in Beirut, before seeing its role eclipsed by Iran and Hezbollah.

HEZBOLLAH STILL SEEN WITH SWAY

Aoun, head of Lebanon’s U.S.-backed army, would still need 86 votes because his election requires a constitutional amendment, as he is a still-serving state employee, Berri has said.

A State Department spokesperson said it was “up to Lebanon to choose its next president, not the United States or any external actor”.

“We have been consistent in our efforts to press Lebanon to elect a new president, which we see as important to strengthening Lebanon’s political institutions,” the spokesperson said.

Hezbollah official Wafiq Safa said last week there was “no veto” on Aoun. But the sources said Hezbollah, designated a terrorist group by the United States, will not support Aoun.

Aoun has a key role in shoring up the ceasefire brokered by Washington and Paris in November. The terms require the Lebanese military to deploy into south Lebanon as Israeli troops and Hezbollah withdraw forces.

Still reeling from a financial collapse in 2019, Lebanon desperately needs foreign aid to rebuild.

Much of the damage is in Shi’ite majority areas.

Hezbollah, its supply line to Iran severed by Assad’s ousting, has urged Arab and international support for Lebanon.

Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of Annahar newspaper, was not certain anyone would be elected, even after the major shift in the balance of power in Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s weapons have long been a source of division.

Underlining the influence Hezbollah and Amal still wield, he said the only way a president could be elected would be if they agreed on Aoun or Azour. But if they tried to install their preferred candidate, this would “sever the oxygen from Lebanon”.

Saudi Minister Faisal bin Farhan said last October that Riyadh had never fully disengaged from Lebanon and that outside countries should not tell Lebanese what to do.