China vehicle export growth to slow in 2025, association data shows

BEIJING, Jan 13 (Reuters) – China’s vehicle exports are expected to grow 5.8% to 6.2 million units this year, cooling from a 19.3% increase in 2024, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed on Monday.

A slowdown in estimated exports contrasts with a slight uptick forecast for vehicle sales in China this year, as extended policy incentives are expected to bolster sales in the world’s largest auto market.

The association did not give a breakdown of export estimates by engine types, but said exports of electric vehicles fell 10.4% last year while plug-in hybrid exports were up 190%.

That compares with an 80.9% rise in EV exports in 2023 at a time when plug-in hybrid exports grew 47.8% and points to the impact of additional tariffs on China-made EVs introduced by the European Union in late October.

China has told its automakers to halt big investment in European countries that support extra tariffs on Chinese-built EVs, Reuters reported in October. Meanwhile, automakers in China are pivoting to hybrid exports for Europe to counter additional EV tariffs.

Vehicle sales in China are forecast to rise 4.7% to 32.9 million units this year, following a 4.5% rise in 2024, according to CAAM.

The association expects a slowdown in sales growth for new energy vehicles (NEVs) that include EVs and plug-in hybrids to 24.4% in 2025 from 35.5% last year.

An extension of auto trade-in subsidies into 2025 is viewed as one of the biggest boons for growth, while weak domestic demand, fierce competition and mounting external pressure are poised to have jarring effects on the auto market, CAAM official Xu Haidong said.

More than 6.6 million cars sold in China last year benefited from government subsidies of up to $2,800 for NEV purchases and as much as $2,000 for more fuel-efficient combustion engine vehicles, official data showed.